Please remember that Biden was losing the election race with Trump before the June 27, 2024 debate, according to the vast majority of polls. This is a quick look at factors affecting Trump and Biden in this 2024 race.
Some Democratic Leader
Democratic leaders who insist that President Biden just had a bad night are making the same mistake they made in 2015 when Trump announced he was running for president and they thought, “Nobody will take him seriously. He’s just a buffoon who had a TV show and went bankrupt several times.”
And then in 2016, those Democratic leaders thought, “Trump is so extreme and sounds like a crazy man — he couldn’t possibly win the election.“
Then Trump won the election in November by defeating a far more qualified opponent — an opponent who beat the daylights out of him in every debate they had.
Cold, Hard Truth
Even if someone is highly qualified and can do the job exceptionally well, they will not get a chance to do that job if they cannot get through the hiring and selection process.
Unfortunately, the hiring and selection process for the presidency beginning in January 2025 is not fair or easy to get through. This process will impact both Trump and Biden.
It requires convincing millions and millions of low-information voters — who make their voting decisions on often flimsy/odd/bizarre rationales — to vote for the candidate who will not create an authoritarian state and completely eliminate the practice of democracy in the United States.
Doing that is much more difficult than it may sound.
2024 Trump Is Not 2016 Trump
When Trump was elected in 2016, he was not prepared, and he did not expect to win. There were enough career professionals in government who prevented him from doing many of the things that he wanted to do and that Putin wanted him to do.
But Trump and his coterie learned what was done wrong from 2016 through 2021 and now he and his cultists/enablers are much better prepared.
For example:
Already, Trump‘s supporters have paid $22 million to The Heritage Foundation, which has created a very detailed roadmap for what will happen if Trump is elected, called Project 2025. It is a stunning work product and it would be very impressive were it not so absolutely terrifying.
Already, Trump staffers have started identifying civil servants who may not be ardent Trump supporters — by communicating with Trump supporters in the current administration. This enables them to determine who to fire on January 21, 2025, if Trump wins in November.
Project 2025-driven project management enables Trump and his people to hit the ground running and dismantle democracy (self-determination by citizens) on day one of his administration.
Already, Trump has a SCOTUS that will do his bidding gleefully. If you’re wondering what I mean by that, remember the Dobbs decision, the Chevron decision and several other decisions that completely overturned decades of precedent.
SCOTUS this week released a decision that redefined bribery as something that is only “bribery” if the person being bribed gets paid before they commit the act, and not after they commit the act.
SCOTUS has legalized bribery in a stupendous way, and given a very clear roadmap for it: Just ask your target elected official to do something, and tell them that you’ll pay them after they’ve done it, instead of paying them before they’ve done it. If you pay them before the fact, it’s bribery, but if you pay them after they’ve done the thing for you, then it’s called a gratuity and a gratuity is perfectly OK.
SCOTUS has green-lighted bribery on a massive new scale.
Trump and Biden
As you can see, it’s very likely that Trump could easily be elected unless the Democrats replace Biden with someone who can attract the people who hate both Biden and Trump, and who liked Biden, but are willing to vote for the Democratic candidate, whoever he is (assuming they keep Harris, it will have to be a man).