Some people think that impeachment will strengthen chances for Trump re-election. However, I think it’s not so simple a calculation. The likelihood of impeachment increasing odds of a Trump re-election depends on the type of impeachment he might experience.
According to a Politico-Morning Consult poll, only 40 percent of registered voters approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing in office, but more than half of them expect him to win reelection,
In that poll, 56% of voters say it is likely Trump will win a second term – 27% say it is “very likely” and 29% say it is “somewhat likely.”
Forty-seven percent of people polled said they support impeaching Trump and removing him from office, and 43% say they oppose that impeachment two-step process.
Given this and other polling data, Trump is very likely to be re-elected in 2020 — unless Congress impeaches him soundly, thoroughly and for every impeachable offense. The evidence put forth for a thorough impeachment needs to be so overwhelming that every GOP Senator who voted to acquit would be recalled by his/her constituents for gross incompetence.
Mixed opinions about the impeachment hearings abound. According to a New York Times analysis, “Whatever the hearings revealed about Mr. Trump’s conduct in office, they seemed to only reinforce just how polarized the country has become. No lawmakers declared that the evidence had changed their minds in either direction and judging by polls most Americans seemed to find only validation for the viewpoint they had when the hearings began.”
The problem with the impeachment process so far is that that a huge quantity of documentary evidence has been destroyed. In addition, witnesses with the most complete and damaging evidence have not testified because Trump has blocked them (which some people understand is a clear demonstration of consciousness of guilt), he will most likely be impeached insufficiently.
Therefore, if Congress impeaches Trump insufficiently, or not at all, the greatest likely outcome is that he will win re-election through the same kind of process that barely won him the Electoral College the first time.